Merely ‘Docile Self-Deception’? German Experiences with Nuclear Consultation in NATO

ABSTRACT

Recent nuclear-weapons-related consultation in NATO within the framework of the Defence and Deterrence Posture Review sheds light on historical experiences with nuclear consultation in NATO. In the early years of the Nuclear Planning Group (NPG), which became the main forum for multilateral nuclear consultation in the alliance, developing a nuclear weapons first use doctrine was of particular importance. This process led to the adoption of the Provisional Political Guidelines (PPGs) on the threat to initiate the use of nuclear weapons. With a focus on West Germany as the primary addressee of the NPG, it will be postulated that nuclear consultation functioned and may still be seen as an essential tool to manage the credibility of US extended nuclear deterrence in the framework of NATO.     

Terrorism as Method in Nepali Maoist Insurgency, 1996–2016

During the period 1996–2006, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) waged overt people’s war to seize state power and institute a new order that realized the party’s understanding of ‘New Democracy’ as posited by Mao Tse-tung. Contextual shifts led to a crucial strategic turning point in September 2005, when the Maoists agreed to a united front with estranged legal parties to oust the monarchy and establish a republic. Though touted as acceptance of political reintegration, the move was tactical rather than strategic. The party had no intention of supporting a parliamentary version of democracy and thus, 2006–2016, engaged in a covert effort to seize power. Central to this effort was the paramilitary Young Communist League (YCL), the members of which responded to inflammatory party verbiage and exhortations with attacks upon rival political actors. These attacks, academically and legally, were terrorism and offered a salient illustration of intra-state unrestricted warfare. Ultimately, organizational, national, and regional circumstances caused the main Maoist movement to move decisively away from its covert approach. By that time, however, radical splinters had embraced the use of terrorism against rival political actors, creating a situation whereby local politics is yet a dangerous endeavor in certain areas and at certain times.     

基于非线性Kalman滤波的导航系统误差补偿技术

针对非线性非高斯导航系统信息处理问题,采用自组织算法、神经网络和遗传算法等改进传统非线性Kalman滤波算法,构建一种自适应的组合导航系统。应用具有冗余趋势项的自组织算法、Volterra神经网络和遗传算法,建立导航系统误差的非线性预测模型,进而计算得到其预测值;将该预测值与Kalman滤波算法求得的估计值进行比较得到差值,以此监测Kalman滤波算法的工作状态;采用自适应控制方法,在导航系统结构层面改进Kalman滤波算法,构建新型的导航系统误差补偿模型。开展基于导航系统KIND-34的半实物仿真研究,应用所提出的改进方法改善了导航系统误差的补偿效果,提高了组合导航系统的自适应能力和容错能力。     

北斗卫星伪距信号质量评估及偏差校正

针对北斗卫星信号存在系统性伪距偏差的问题,从多路径角度评估北斗三频信号的质量,验证了该项偏差与卫星轨道类型、卫星仰角及信号频率有关。为消除这一系统性偏差的影响,采用连续分段线性函数建立北斗三频伪距偏差校正模型。与现有的改正模型所不同,所提模型不仅采用了更长时间范围内的北斗实测数据,更为重要的是它顾及了改正数的精度信息。基于动态精密单点定位的实验结果表明,采用所提方法修正后,接收机定位性能有明显提升。     

离心机试验中惯导平台误差系数辨识方法

针对离心机试验中惯导平台误差系数辨识问题,提出一种6位置辨识方案。建立误差系数辨识的非线性模型,再利用扩展卡尔曼滤波估计误差系数。由滤波中的估值方差矩阵计算各误差系数之间的相关系数,用相关系数分析系统的可观性,并将所有相关系数之和最小作为优化指标,利用遗传算法得到最优的位置组合。仿真结果表明,采用该方案可以有效辨识出惯导平台中与加速度高阶项有关的各项误差系数。     

区域和参数化可靠性灵敏度指标及其解法

针对基于方差的全局可靠性灵敏度指标,分别提出基于方差的区域和参数化可靠性灵敏度指标,以衡量输入变量的取值区域发生变化时或输入变量的方差减小时整个输入变量系统对失效概率不确定性贡献的变化情况。然后从Pearson相关系数的视角分别将所提指标表述成无条件失效域指示函数与固定某一随机输入时的条件失效域指示函数之间的相关系数。在此转换的基础上,提出基于Pearson相关系数的两种求解方法,一种采用蒙特卡洛方法重复抽样进行循环计算,另一种借鉴重要抽样的思想。功能函数的计算样本可重复使用而不增加任何额外的计算代价,故后者大大提高了求解所提区域和参数化灵敏度指标的计算效率。算例结果验证了所提指标的合理性,同时也证明了所提方法的准确性与高效性。     

基于复杂网络的武器装备体系贡献度评估分析方法

根据结构决定功能的系统论观点,基于复杂网络理论对武器装备作战体系网络的拓扑结构进行了分析,构建了基于不确定性自信息量的武器装备作战体系作战效能分析模型,提出了计算武器装备体系贡献度的方法,并通过算例验证,探讨了网络结构演化及度量参数改变对武器装备体系贡献度的影响,为武器装备体系贡献度评估分析提供了技术支撑。     

高超声速飞行器组合导航体系效能评估

集合当今世界高精尖端技术的高超声速飞行器,单一或简单的组合导航方式已经无法保障其高超声速全球到达的飞行任务。研究了一种INS\GNSS\CNS组合导航体系方案,与典型的INS\GNSS组合导航系统方案相比较,并采用改进的贝叶斯法融合算法对这两种导航方案进行综合效能评估。结果证明,该评估方法切实可行,便于计算应用,证实了INS\GNSS\CNS组合导航体系保障高超声速飞行器作战能力更强。     

悬浮式深弹反鱼雷武器系统的有效拦截域分析

针对悬浮式深弹反鱼雷武器系统在作战使用中需对目标的可拦性进行快速判断的需求,提出了系统有效拦截域的概念,又根据系统作战流程和工作原理,将有效拦截域判断条件细化为时间域和空间域两个方面判据,进而构建了基于实战中可获取的战场态势等相关信息计算系统有效拦截域的数学模型,并具体给出了一个计算实例。研究结果可为其作战使用提供一定参考。